How do you follow up such a big week like that?  Probably with a bad week, but I am going for two in a row, finish this season strong.  Here you go for week 15 NFL picks, the Wizard is in black and the Joker in blue.  Have fun.

Baltimore (-3.5) over MIAMI: I'm rooting for the Dolphins to be winless and the Patriots to be undefeated next time they play. I'm pretty sure Mercury Morris' head would pop off.

Baltimore (-3.5) over MIAMI: Because how can you bet on Miami and Cleo Lemon?  I admit I am rooting for the same thing.  I started out the year hating the Pats, and I still hope they go down in the playoffs, but how can you not be excited to watch as a team makes history?  It is part of being a sports fan, it is fun to be a part of this.  I also think it will be fun to watch them embarrass the Jets.

CLEVELAND (-5.5) over Buffalo: I'm being baited into taking the points here, but I'm going to stick with my Browns. They can score with anyone, but I am worried that they've had sub-par performances in the last two weeks against Arizona and the Jets. Buffalo is better than both of those teams, Marshawn Lynch could break the 1,000 yard barrier this week. Impressive for a rookie, even more impressive for a rookie who has missed some games due to injury.

Buffalo (+5.5) over CLEVELAND:  I know how much you love the Browns, and I love them too, but I think this is too many points for a team that has been squeaking wins all year.  Believe it or not, Cleveland is 10-3 ATS and Buffalo is 8-4-1.  I think Cleveland is getting more respect and therefore giving more points.  Buffalo has trouble scoring, but playing the worst ranked defense should help.  I think this is too close to pick a winner, so I have to take the points.  I do, by the way, expect Clev to win and would not be surprised if they covered.

Philadelphia (+10.5) over DALLAS: This was the exact spread last week and the Cowboys didn't start playing football until the 4th quarter. This is a division game and I think it can be closer than the oddsmakers think.

Philadelphia (+10.5) over DALLAS: Agreed.  That extra half point helps a lot too.  Philly throws the ball a lot.  Dallas has a weak pass D.  That is enough to take ten and a half points for me.

Green bay (-10) over ST. LOUIS: The Packers are 5-1 on the road and have scored at least 23 points in all but one of them (19 against Denver). The Rams are overmatched in every category.

Green bay (-10) over ST. LOUIS:  I have to agree with you again.  The packers have been incredibly consistent, and ST Louis has been the opposite.  I get a little scared of the points, but then I remember that GB plays great defense, which is probably the reason for their consistency, that and establishing a run game has helped tremendously.  There is a much better chance the GB completely blows them out than there is that St Louis will score the upset.  Good teaser here I think.

Hey, how about Ryan Grant as a fantasy pick up? He is this year's Marques Colston.

Except that Colston played all year.  He has been a stud, but not enough to get me into the finals.  F’ing TO picked a great week to drop a bomb.

Indianapolis (-10) over OAKLAND: Ten points has become the arbitrary number for the Colts, Steelers, Cowboys, and Packers this season. Of course, twenty is the number for the Patriots. There's such a difference in the top-tier from the rest of the league. The Colts are much better than the Raiders.

Indianapolis (-10) over OAKLAND: They are just way better than Oakland.  The Raiders have been good at hanging around and covering spreads the last couple of years, but I don’t think they can hang around with Indy.  You are right about the big drop off.  I can’t remember a year like this where the top teams were so much better than the bottom.  Every game is “this team sucks so I pick the other,” or “both of these teams suck, so how do I choose”  Anyway, Indy is rolling, gotta stick with them at this point.

NEW ENGLAND (-23.5) over Jets: The spread has lowered because of a snow storm coming into New England this weekend. I still don't buy the idea the Pats won't cover this spread. You're telling me Brady doesn't throw at least four touchdowns?

NEW ENGLAND (-23.5) over Jets:  Really?  I didn’t know that.  You think that hurts them?  I know, their could be a hurricane and Billachick would convince them that blowing out the Jets was the most important thing in the world.  Of any big spread ever, do you remember another time where you knew for a fact that the favorite really wanted to blow the other team out?

Arizona (+3) over NEW ORLEANS: What makes this Saints team scary right now? Nothing. The Cardinals are playing better football and they're actually healthier than the Saints (which says a lot). The Saints will be one dimensional for the rest of the year and Drew Brees doesn't have enough weapons to compensate. Arizona in a blowout.

Arizona (+3) over NEW ORLEANS:  I sort of disagree here.  I think that the Saints are not much worse off without Bush.  Don’t get me wrong, I think he is a stud, but they have capable backups that are probably better between the tackles.  Arizona’s team is built around their two receivers and neither are healthy.  That part scares me.  Az has managed to stay in most of their games and I don’t think they lose by more than a field.  I think they probably win because they actually play more consistent than NO.  I hate betting on Saints games.  So how bout Justin working for the Saints?  I can’t wait to go to New Orleans next year and go to a game.

Washington (+3.5) over GIANTS: I can't bring myself to bet on Eli Manning. Ever.

GIANTS (-3.5) over Washington:  I on the other hand can.  At least sometimes.  Eli is a bum, but he looks good from time to time.  I think Washington is due for a shithole game and what better time to do that, then on the road in New York.  Giants are a better team and I am not fully buying the second half collapse thing…yet.

Jacksonville (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH: I know I just picked three road underdogs in a row, but I can't help myself. The Steelers didn't impress me one bit through the air last weekend though they did have some success running.  Jacksonville will show the Steelers an even better front seven. This should be an old-fashion smash mouth game.

PITTSBURGH (-3.5) over Jacksonville:  I am really looking forward to this game, of course I can’t watch it, so I guess I am looking forward to the replay on the Network.  I am taking last week with a grain of sand because 1. New England makes everyone look like shit and 2. Pitt is a completely different team at home.  They have actually been pretty crappy on the road.  They are 7-0 at home vs 2-4 on the road, including 5-2 ATS at home.  I have no clue what will happen here.  I would love to buy half a point.  I am going with Pitt because I read an article dissecting the Jacksonville pass D, and I think Pitt may be able to capitalize through the air.  We will find out how good both of these teams are here.  That is what I am looking forward to.  JAx looks like the Chargers first round opponent.

SAN DIEGO (-10) over Detroit: The Chargers should be able to control the clock behind Tomlinson. As long as Rivers manages the game pretty well they should be okay. I bet lots of people are going to be banking on the performance of the Lions last week when making picks, but don't.  The wind is out of the sails in Detroit. Officially.
 
Speaking of San Diego, it would really suck to live there right now. There's 8-10 inches of snow coming to my town this afternoon.

SAN DIEGO (-10) over Detroit:  Agreed, no wind, none at all.  I have said it before, if the Chargers win, they cover.  I think they should win this game, and I think this should be a nice confidence booster.  The team should feel good about overcome a bad day and winning that game last week.  This week they should beat up on an inferior team and feel even better.

It does suck here by the way, I had to wear a sweater to work today, and yesterday topped off at 69, ok I made up that number, but it sounded good.

CAROLINA (+7.5) over Seattle: This seems like too many points to give up at home against the Seahawks, who suck anywhere but home. I haven't given up on the Panthers being competitive.
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Seattle (-7.5) over CAROLINA:  I have given up on Carolina being competitive, and Seattle has actually been much better on the road this year.  By much better I mean 3-3.  They have won five games in a tow, including two on the road, and Carolina is in a tailspin.  I don’t think they come out this week against a solid, hot team.

TAMPA BAY (-13.5) over Atlanta: With Coach Petrino leaving, this game can go one way or the other, meaning that the Falcons will rally and win or just lie down and get humped like a fat chick with too much to drink.
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Atlanta (+13.5) over TAMPA BAY:  This looks completely stupid as I write this, but I kind of like the idea of a team underperforming all year with a coach in the process of finding a new job.  I know when I was looking for a new job and still working, I probably played online poker more than I did work.  I like this team playing a bit better this week. 

Tennessee (-3.5) over KANSAS CITY: What a tough way to go out last week for the Titans.  I think they recover against a weaker AFC West foe.
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Tennessee (-3.5) over KANSAS CITY:  This team I think still has fight left.  That was a rough game last week, but they looked way better then they did during their three game skid.  This is a good hard nose football team.  I think this game is very slow and low scoring, but Tenn is much better than KC.  I think the Chiefs may lose out, they are playing as bad as anyone right now.  I like this game a lot.

Chicago (+10) over MINNESOTA: This spread just seems to high for me, especially against the Bears who are hit or miss on both sides of the ball. I don't think the Vikings can possibly lose this game, but crazier things have happened.
 
Speaking of this game, this will be the first time I've seen Peterson play since breaking the single-game record against San Diego. Needless to say, I'm anxious to see how he performs against a similarly quick and strong defense.

MINNESOTA (-10) over Chicago:  I could see the Bears defense stepping up this week against a pretty one dimensional offense, but for me it comes down to the other side of the ball.  Minnesota’s d is playing very well right now, and the Bears offense is garbage.  I think they will have a lot of trouble putting points on the board, where as Minn will wear down all game and score enough to cover.  We are probably looking at something like 17-6.