Week 16 Picks



This game Curveball is taking control of my life.  I just made it to Level 8 undefeated, all my chances still available. I got the computer down to his last ball, then I lost three in a row. It's not a problem that I then chucked a white board marker across my classroom while angrily cursing.  I'm also very hungover.  Yup, readers, teachers drink too.

Readers, haha, that is a funny one.  I hate you for re-introducing me to curveball because it is threatening my life as well.  I am still yet to score once on level 8, that bastard.
My picks:
 
BEARS (+8.5) over Green Bay: I have no real reason for liking the Bears here, but I do.  I'd like to see the Packers get home field advantage throughout the playoffs after beating the Bears (just barely) and the Lions. It'll be tough, though, as the Cowboys have the tiebreaker (better conference record) and they play the Panthers and the Redskins.
 
Do you realize there may be three teams (Green Bay, Dallas, Indy) that go 14-2 this season? Has that ever happened?

Green Bay (-8.5) over BEARS: It always scares me taking large spreads for teams that have already clinched what they can for the playoffs.  Here the Packers still have a shot but Dallas has to lose.  I think that is enough to keep trying to win, though.  Chicago will have a lot of trouble getting anything done on offense, and there is really no reason for this game to be close.

That probably never has happened, the crazy part is that you left out the team currently undefeated.  You can say there may end up being 4 teams with 14 or more wins...that is nuts.


Browns (-3) over CINCINNATI: I'm going to have to go back and look how many times this year I've picked the Browns.  I'm pretty sure the last time I didn't pick Cleveland was last time these two teams matched up. What's their number ATS? They've blocked every single site that even implies gambling at my school. They're on to me.


Browns (-3) over CINCINNATI: I don’t know, I am too lazy..I think this game could be fun, but the weather looks to ruin it.  Cincy should not have lost last week.  I am bitter. 


NEW ENGLAND (-22) over Miami: Speaking of teams I pick every week. The Patriots haven't covered three out of the last four weeks. I can't even blame this on the astronomically high spreads Vegas has been giving them. They barely beat Philly and Baltimore, then they put up a stinker against the Jets. Even with reasonable spreads for those three teams, the Pats wouldn't have covered. Miami, however, is a different monster. They suck.

Miami (+22) over NEW ENGLAND:  They do suck, but they have been close to winning a lot this year, they finally got one through.  I can’t bet on these huge spreads after the last month.  Miami sucks, but I am expecting the weather to help them cover just like the Jets did last week.  Who knows?


INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Houston: Peyton Manning might not play very much, but I still think they give him enough playing time to throw a couple of touchdown passes against a pretty shitty defensive backfield.  Either way, Addai will get lots of touches in this game, and the Colts should win by two scores.

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Houston:  If this game was in Houston I would pick them.  I still might, Indy has nothing to lose or gain here.  They have already clinched the bye.  Jim Sorgi?  I don’t know, this could be interesting.  I think they starters do enough in the first half for the relatively stout defense to hold the lead.


Kansas City (+5) over DETROIT: These two teams are still playing football?  I'm pretty sure I've lost all interest in either of these teams. I don't care who is hurt, I don't care what their records are now. I've never been less excited about a football game.

DETROIT (-5) over KC:  Both teams suck, and you know how I feel about those games.  Detroit may have given up, hopefully they play hard at home.


MINNESOTA (-6.5) over Washington: Do you think Adrian Peterson is good for a couple scores here? I think he's good enough to put the Vikings ahead by at least a score by the final buzzer.

MINNESOTA (-6.5) over Washington:  If this game was in Washington I would take the Skins, I kind of feel like Minn is due for a stinker, I guess they did that last week with all of Jackson’s picks.  He is a liability, but their defense should be good enough to win this one on their own.


NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Philly: Originally, I was thinking the Eagles were going to win this game outright. They've played the Pats tough and beat the Cowboys last week. Then I looked at the standings on ESPN.com and realized that if the Eagles won, they'd be 7-8 with an outside chance to make the playoffs.

Philly (+3) over NEW ORLEANS:  How do either of these teams have any shot at the playoffs, stupid NFC.  I kind of like Philly here.  I don’t know how healthy Westbrook is, but NO may not stop Philly’s O at all.  I still feel like Philly is better than their record.  They are so unpredictable, but then again, so are the Saints.  I will take the 3 points and look for a big day from McNabb.


So we have two 14-2 teams atop the NFC. Then we have a team like the Vikings, Saints, and Eagles who could also make the playoffs. It's like being in a room with two types of girls: Supermodels and fat chicks. The supermodels won't give you the time of day (well, maybe you, Joker), and who wants to talk to fat chicks?

They would give me the time of day with a wedding ring on.  I am curious to see how this wedding band thing works.  They always say girls are turned on by it, I may start getting hit on all the time.  I could deal with that.


BUFFALO (+3) over Giants: I'll echo what Bill Simmons said (Hey, if he can steal our LaDainian/LaTorsha bit, I have the right to paraphrase him!): The Bills at home, against Eli Manning and a "we disintegrate every December" Giants team, and with Kevin Everett on the sideline? A no-brainer.

BUFFALO (+3) over Giants: Enough said


JACKSONVILLE (-13) over Oakland: As a Patriots fan, the Jags are a team I am terrified of playing.  Their quarterback doesn't make mistakes, they have a stout defense, and a great running game.  They have a realistic shot at beating any team in the league.

JACKSONVILLE (-13) over Oakland:  Jacksonville is pretty legit.  Oakland can’t stop the run, and no one runs better than the Jags.


Jets (+8.5) over TENNESSEE: Chad Pennington, for some odd reason, turns into Joe Montana every time he plays the Patriots. It's uncanny. 
 
What can be said about this Titans team? They had a pretty brutal schedule and lost four out of their last six games, but more than losing to Jax, Cincy, Denver, and San Diego, they got blown out in the first three and blew the Chargers game. Have they really improved from last year?

Jets (+8.5) over TENNESSEE:  I don’t know, I think they are pretty solid, but not spectacular at anything.  The Jets aren’t really getting blown out but they keep getting big spreads.  Tenn hasn’t been blowing out anyone.

Tampa Bay (-6) over SAN FRANCISCO: "With the fourth pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots select..." Keep losing, 49ers. Keep losing.

Tampa Bay (-6) over SAN FRANCISCO:  I hate you.  The Niners are one of the worst 5 teams in the league, and Tampa Bay is too well coached and too consistent to lose to these guys.  I love this in a teaser.


ARIZONA (-10) over Atlanta: I hate to bet a double digit spread on a team that isn't clearly superior to the other. In the case of Atlanta, though, I'm pretty sure most of the lockers are being slowly emptied.

ARIZONA (-10) over Atlanta:  God, Atlanta is terrible.  I have trouble with this one.  The QB and his two star receivers are banged up, but Atlanta looked pathetic last week.  I hate this game…hate it.


Baltimore (+10.5) over SEATTLE: Why does Seattle bother me so much? I've never, ever bet on a Seahawks game. I'm convinced. They could be playing a pop warner team and I'm never going to be sold on them. Maybe it's because Shaun Alexander is the most overrated runningback ever.

Baltimore (+10.5) over SEATTLE:  Baltimore just lost at Miami and Seattle is quietly one of the best NFC teams, especially in Seattle.  Blow out city here.  How did the wheels fall off of the Ravens wagon?  They shouldn’t be this bad.


SAN DIEGO (-8) over Denver: How disheartening must it be to have to play out the season when there's nothing to play for. That's what's great about the NCAA tournament, there's no consolation game. You lose, you're out. Maybe I should amend my rule change to: your season is over when you're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

SAN DIEGO (-8) over Denver:  Haha, season ticketholders get their money back and they are happy, and the players lose their salary for those games, makes them play harder.  I love it.  Denver could come out hard and make this close, they have a lot of the pieces for a successful team, but they aren’t there yet.  They got blown out at home by SD, so they could be looking for revenge.  Another good teaser game here, though, because there is no doubt in my mind the Chargers win. 

 

So I was about to buy Charger playoff tickets and then I realized that the game is either the 5th or 6th.  I am flying to Mexico on the 6th and wouldn’t be able to go.  That is terrible.  No need to worry about me though, if the game is on in the morning on the 6th, I am still good because I am flying Frontier and they have tv’s with cable.  How great does that work out?

So Charger talk has begun.  The Chargers right now are set to get the third seed.  How did that happen?  If they win out they get Cleveland (or Pitt if they continue sucking) instead of Jacksonville, and Indy instead of NE if they win in the first round.  That is a big difference.  Go Bolts.

Good luck everyone. 
 

 

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